Wednesday, December 5, 2012

The major players

Last night we heard from Prof. Uzi Rabi of Tel Aviv university. He spoke with us to give a background and perspective on what is going on in the Middle East and who the major players are.  He focused on the Arab Spring and what has been going on in the various countries.  We talked about the  change from dictatorship to democracy, which is incredibly difficult.  I can't help but think about the fall of the Soviet Union and how the transition from communism was incredibly difficult, because how do you easily move from the only thing you know to something new? But beyond dictators and democracy what drives the turmoil in the middle east isn't solely the Israel/Palestinian issue but more so the issues between Sunni and Shiite and the other  various groups wanting autonomy and power like the Alawites and Kurds.  He mentioned that the power lies within those countries that have long, long histories and who were regional powers like Egypt, Iran, and Turkey.  Newer countries, those who were formed by drawing on a map, like Syria and Lebanon may not have staying power.
There is tension in Gaza between Shiite and Sunni, and this is seen when Iran and Egypt get involved.  Islamic jihad is supported by Iran and receiving rockets from Iran while Hamas is supported by Egypt, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood.

Then there is the PA.  Abbas made his power play at the UN and will likely continue to leverage that.  We discussed that the PA has more ability or capacity to engage in nation building than hamas but will they step up? The other question seems to be whether Netanyahu will give them the opportunity? It was suggested that he ought to listen to Olmert and give Palestinians the chance to "put their money where their mouth is," so to speak.  By going to the UN they say they want peace and a two state solution but what they say and do are often different so they need to be pushed to prove it to the world.

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